The unrest that erupted in Iran in late 2025 and continued for more than two weeks was not the first of its kind in recent years. Similar episodes occurred in 2009, 2018, and 2022, each emerging under different banners — from disputed election results to women’s rights or social demands. In all these cases, Iranian officials pointed to signs of foreign involvement aimed at fueling and exploiting these movements.
An Unprecedented and High-Risk Episode
The most recent unrest, however, stood out for both its scope and its nature, making it unprecedented and, according to Iranian authorities, extremely dangerous. Officials say sustained and wide-ranging efforts prevented what they describe as a major catastrophe. The alleged objective, they argue, was nothing less than the creation of widespread sedition and the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Why Iran Is Different
According to the Al-Manar news website, in any country a segment of society may raise demands it considers legitimate. Some states categorically ban gatherings and protests of any kind. Iran, however, operates differently. Within the framework of Islamic law, peaceful demonstrations are permitted, provided they do not lead to violence or destruction.
Iran describes itself as an Islamic republic built on elections, rule of law, and the circulation of power. In the context of protests, officials have repeatedly stressed that public demands are heard and that dialogue is conducted with representatives of peaceful movements.
The Origins of the Unrest
It remains unclear whether the recent movement began spontaneously with social slogans and was later taken over and guided by foreign-linked groups, or whether it was planned from the outset, shaped by external incitement, with parts of the population joining later.
There is little doubt, however, that many of the grievances stem from the impact of four decades of Western sanctions on Iran’s economy and on people’s livelihoods. From this perspective, a clear chain is formed: sanctions cause social and economic strain, which adversaries then seek to exploit as a tool to incite society and advance their objectives.
What Made These Events Especially Dangerous?
The movement initially began with occupational and economic demands but gradually shifted toward anti-system slogans and calls for regime change. The geographical spread of the unrest exceeded previous episodes. Armed individuals, operating in coordination across several regions, reportedly opened fire, spread chaos, and attacked government facilities in an effort to paralyze state institutions.
Clashes escalated into unprecedented levels of violence against security forces, resulting in the deaths of several personnel, described by officials as martyrs. A number of civilians were also killed. The pattern of shootings reinforced suspicions that mercenaries were deliberately targeting both civilians and security forces to inflame public anger. At the same time, separatist groups became active, and the son of Iran’s deposed shah issued provocative statements from abroad calling for the continuation of anti-government actions.
Most notably, Iranian authorities pointed to what they described as the overt role of the United States and Israel. Based on investigative findings, officials claim these actors played a central role in inciting and directing the unrest, with some of their officials allegedly encouraging protesters to occupy government buildings.
According to this assessment, the ultimate goal of the operation may have been to trigger widespread internal chaos, weaken national structures, and pave the way for a foreign attack on Iran by leaving the country vulnerable to external aggression.
Assessment by an Iranian Analyst
Dr. Yousef Abu-Khalil, a researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, stressed that these events cannot be viewed in isolation.
“Recent developments are part of a series of plans that have targeted Iran since the victory of the Islamic Revolution,” he said. “From the 1953 coup to the present day, the United States has consistently sought to weaken or overthrow Iran’s system. Whenever direct military action was not possible, efforts shifted toward internal sabotage through espionage and covert networks linked to Mossad and the CIA.”
According to Abu-Khalil, following the 12-day war last summer, Iran’s adversaries expected that intensified pressure would cause the system to collapse from within. The plan, he said, involved the assassination of commanders, followed by the activation of riot and sabotage groups.
“Like the plots of 2009, 2018, and 2022, this plan also failed,” he added. “Despite the unprecedented level of violence and destruction, the Islamic Republic emerges stronger after each trial.”
Behind the Plot
Iranian officials say investigations and confessions by detainees revealed that some armed cells involved in acts of violence and unrest were linked to Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad.
According to officials, the motivations behind this plan included:
- The failure of Iran’s adversaries in last summer’s war and Iran’s decisive response to Israel
- Attempts to retaliate against Iran through internal infiltration
- A longstanding goal of overthrowing a system that opposes U.S. policies and global Zionism and supports the Axis of Resistance
- Failing regime change, increasing pressure on Iran to force concessions on nuclear or defensive issues
- The inability of sanctions and political pressure to alter Tehran’s core positions
The Collapse of the Plan
After two weeks of unrest, calm returned to the country. Officials attribute this to decisive leadership, public vigilance, and precise security operations.
Security forces, through professional monitoring of communications and the identification and arrest of key instigators, dismantled what they described as the core networks behind the unrest. Large-scale public rallies in support of the political system also played a decisive role in bringing the situation under control.
Abu-Khalil identifies three decisive factors behind the failure of the plot: the leadership of Imam Ali Khamenei, whose decisions shape domestic and foreign policy; broad popular support and mass public presence; and the Islamic Republic’s religious-ideological foundation, which he describes as a source of resilience and stability.
“As long as Iran stands alongside the oppressed of the world,” he said, “these conspiracies will continue — but they will always fail.”
U.S. Threats and Retreat
At the height of the unrest, reports emerged of U.S. threats of military action under the pretext of “defending protesters.” However, after several days of tension, Donald Trump stepped back from the idea, indirectly citing concerns over “executions” in Iran and stating that the decision was his own.
The U.S. outlet Axios, citing American and Israeli officials, reported that several factors contributed to this retreat, including insufficient U.S. military readiness in the region to confront a potential Iranian response and warnings from allies about the devastating consequences such an attack could have for regional stability.
According to one adviser to the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu told the U.S. president during a phone call that “Israel is not prepared to face Iran’s response.” At the same time, Iran’s deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi held discussions with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on ways to reduce tensions.
Continued Vigilance
Today, Iranian officials argue that any actor considering a plot against Iran is fully aware of the country’s military and security capabilities — whether targeting Israel or U.S. bases in the region. Despite the failure of recent efforts, Iran remains on high alert. Security measures and arrests of networks linked to foreign actors continue, and the Islamic Republic says it is prepared to confront any repetition of a similar scenario.
From: Al-Manar