Seeing Chinese authorities exercise extraordinary powers during a stringent COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year altered Claire Jiang’s life plans: she no longer wants to have babies in China.
During the April-May lockdown, the hashtag “we are the last generation” briefly went viral on Chinese social media before being censored.
The phrase echoed the response of a man who was visited by authorities in hazmat suits threatening to punish his family for three generations for non-compliance with COVID rules.
“That really resonated,” said Jiang, who internalised the man’s remark as her own answer to the motherhood question.
“I definitely don’t want my children to have to carry the uncertainty of living in a country where the government can just come to your door and do whatever they want,” said the 30-year-old, who works in the media industry.
Studies have shown that pandemics and economic uncertainty historically weigh on birth rates around the world.
But, particular to China, its uncompromising “zero-COVID” policy of promptly stamping out any outbreaks with strict controls on people’s lives may have caused profound damage on their desire to have children, demographers say.
Accounts of people losing income or not having access to healthcare or food, or of authorities forcefully entering homes to take people to quarantine centres, including elderly and children, abounded during lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere.
Demographers say people’s feelings of losing control over their lives from events like those can have major consequences on parenthood goals.
“China is obviously big government and small family,” said prominent Chinese demographer Yi Fuxian. “China’s zero-COVID policy has led to a zero economy, zero marriages, zero fertility.”
China’s National Health Commission and its Family Planning Commission did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Chinese authorities have repeatedly said zero-COVID is necessary to save lives, pointing to the millions of deaths around the world compared to only 5,226 officially reported in China since the start of the pandemic.
A separate U.N. China report said the pandemic had a long-term impact on first births, with women citing financial insecurity, unsubstantiated worries about COVID vaccines affecting foetuses, along with difficulties in carrying a pregnancy and taking care of an infant under heavy restrictions.
“Couples that may have been thinking about having a child in the next year, definitely postponed those. Couples that really weren’t sure, have postponed indefinitely,” said Justine Coulson, the U.N. Population Fund Representative to China.
New births are set to fall to record lows this year, demographers say, dropping below 10 million from last year’s 10.6 million babies – which were already 11.5% lower than in 2020.
Official 2022 population data is not expected until early next year, but some places in China have published worrying statistics in recent weeks.
Screening for birth defects – a reliable proxy for birthrates – in China’s third most populous province Henan fell 9.5% year-on-year in the first six months.