Recent research, co-authored by a Cornell University economist, reveals a sharp decline in marriage rates among women without a college degree in the United States. In contrast, college-educated women have continued to marry at a steady rate over the past few decades.
Published as a working paper on the SSRN server, the study highlights the need for policymakers to focus more on the circumstances of working-class men and women. Children from these groups are more likely to grow up in low-income or single-parent households, which can negatively affect economic opportunities for the next generation.
Benjamin Goldman, a postdoctoral associate and incoming faculty member at Cornell’s Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy and the Department of Economics, stated:
“Historical data and recent trends show that finding a spouse has been—and will likely continue to be—challenging for non-college women. Meanwhile, college-educated women have continued to marry, even as the number of college-educated men declines.”
Reasons Behind the Decline in Marriage Rates Among Non-College-Educated Women
According to historical data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, marriage rates among college-educated women have remained stable, holding above 70%. However, for women without a college degree, rates have dropped significantly—from 78.7% to 52.4%.
The study found that college-educated women have maintained consistent marriage patterns over the past 50 years. Roughly half marry college-educated men, about a quarter marry men without a college degree, and another quarter remain unmarried.
The Role of Economic Status Among Non-College-Educated Men
The researchers discovered that non-college-educated men who married college-educated women tend to have higher incomes than their peers. However, overall, the average income for this group has declined over the past 50 years, falling to approximately $46,000 per year (in 2024 dollars).
In urban areas where non-college-educated men have more stable economic outcomes—such as lower unemployment and incarceration rates—the marriage gap between college-educated and non-college-educated women is 50% smaller than in areas where these men face worse economic conditions.
Implications and Policy Recommendations
According to the study, improving economic opportunities for men without a college degree could significantly boost marriage rates among non-college-educated women. This, in turn, could increase the number of children born into married, two-parent households, offering better prospects for children in low-income communities.
This research was conducted in collaboration with Clara Chambers, a research fellow at Yale University, and Joseph Winkelmann, a doctoral candidate in economics at Harvard University. The findings are published in a paper titled “Bachelors Without Bachelor’s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates.”
Source: Cornell University