A new study by the Education Policy Institute (EPI) warns that England’s low birth rate is threatening the viability of state primary schools. If current trends continue, as many as 800 primary schools could close by 2029.
Declining Numbers, Rising Risk
According to the EPI, the number of children enrolled in state primary schools in England—once peaking at roughly 4.5 million in the 2018–19 school year—has already dropped by nearly 2 %. It is projected to shrink another 4 % over the next five years, equating to a loss of about 162,000 pupils. Because school funding in England is tied to pupil numbers, declines of this magnitude could place many schools under severe financial strain.
In London, the situation is more acute. Nine out of the ten local authorities experiencing the sharpest drops in primary pupil numbers are in the capital—areas like Westminster, Lambeth, Southwark, Hackney, Camden, Hammersmith & Fulham, Islington, Merton, and Wandsworth.
Why Are Pupils Disappearing?
Falling Birth Rates
The primary driver of this trend is the sustained decline in birth rates—a pattern that first emerged after a post-millennium baby boom waned.
Housing Costs and Family Choices
But birth rate decline isn’t acting alone. The EPI report points to the high cost of housing, especially in cities like London, which is pushing many families to relocate to more affordable regions—or even leave the state school system entirely. In some cases, families are opting for private education or emigrating.
Impact on School Finances
As pupil numbers fall, schools lose funding. Yet many of their costs—staff salaries, utilities, maintenance—do not fall in the same proportion. This mismatch is squeezing budgets and threatening long-term viability.
Forecasts & Consequences
By 2029, EPI models suggest England could lose around 162,000 primary pupils—the equivalent of closing down 800 single-form entry schools. Some local authorities in London are already planning closures to adapt to falling demand.
In financial terms, the decline in student numbers could cost English schools up to £1 billion by 2030.
What Experts Suggest
Demographers emphasize that Britain’s experience is not unique—many countries are grappling with falling fertility rates. While some governments respond with financial incentives and pro-natal policies, analysts argue a more sustainable path lies in strengthening the resilience of educational and social systems to adapt to demographic change.
In the case of England, this could mean rethinking funding formulas, consolidating or merging schools, or reconfiguring catchment areas to maintain viable class sizes.
From: Guardian
